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Tim Hortons and Bitcoin Megathread


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@WileyWarWeasel You really need to learn the difference between "is" and "will be."

You haven't shown trends that bitcoin isn't being adopted in any significant capacity by the developing world, you've actually shown the opposite. 9 years ago it started, 5 years ago no one knew about it, 3 years ago it had no use in the developing world at all, and now it's both known around the world and actually used. It didn't go from trillions to many trillions like dollars did, it went from zero in just a few years.Tell you what. How about I keep an eye on this post, and in a few years come back and laugh in your face? Sure bitcoin "bubbled" and "crashed" at $1, at $32, at $250, and at $1,200, but obviously this time it will be different, right?

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13 hours ago, Rassah said:

@WileyWarWeasel You really need to learn the difference between "is" and "will be."

You haven't shown trends that bitcoin isn't being adopted in any significant capacity by the developing world, you've actually shown the opposite. 9 years ago it started, 5 years ago no one knew about it, 3 years ago it had no use in the developing world at all, and now it's both known around the world and actually used. It didn't go from trillions to many trillions like dollars did, it went from zero in just a few years.Tell you what. How about I keep an eye on this post, and in a few years come back and laugh in your face? Sure bitcoin "bubbled" and "crashed" at $1, at $32, at $250, and at $1,200, but obviously this time it will be different, right?

You need to learn the difference between "usage as an actual currency" and "usage as a speculative vehicle". The current market cap for bitcoin is due to speculative usage, not because people are using it to buy products and services directly in any significant capacity.

If you're asking me when this speculative bubble will crash I don't know. Bubbles do not have a set duration.

 

You also need to learn the difference between "used in a significant capacity" and "being used more than zero".

Lets have a look at the data I've shown that according to you shows that bitcoin is used in a significant capacity by the developing world.

 

"

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactions.html

For 2017 Bitcoin's transaction volume was mostly between 200k to 400k daily, with roughly 300k daily transaction volume on the average. Even with the spikes and falls in market value its transaction volume has almost entirely remained within these bounds.

https://www.worldpaymentsreport.com/reports/noncash

Current estimates of 2016 and 2017 non-cash transactions for developing regions are 161.3 billion for 2016 and 192.6 billion for 2017, with growth of 31.3 billion between the two years, or otherwise growth of a daily average of 85,753,424.

I'm afraid that bitcoin's transaction volume is trivial compared to merely the growth in transaction volumes for developing countries, let alone their overall transaction volumes and bitcoin's transaction volumes are for both developing and developed regions.

"

 

Since that is not clear enough let me spell it out to you:

In 2016 non-cash transactions for the developing world were 441,917,808 per day on the average. Even if we're being generous with the bitcoin transaction volume for 2016 and give it a rough average of 250k transaction per day this is 1/1,767th of non-cash transactions for the developing world.

In 2017 non-cash transactions for the developing world were 527,671,232 per day on the average. Bitcoin averaged about 300k per day which is 1/1,758th of non-cash transactions for the developing world. Its share has improved marginally but keep in mind that the transaction volumes for bitcoin are for both developing world and developed world and it is still insignificant and it has already run into scaling problems relating to transaction time and fees on top of what you would pay to third parties. Even if the promises of the Lightning project are true its ability to scale will still be insignificant relative to the rest of the world.

Even if just 1/3 of bitcoin transactions are in the developed world that leaves 166,666 transactions daily for 2016 and 200k transactions daily for 2017 for the developing world. That is 1/2,651th of non-cash transactions for the developing world for 2016 and 1/2,638th for 2017.

Also bitcoin transaction volume (and remember that is unique transactions not bundled) is no longer growing exponentially as shown in the previous charts:

bitcoinlinearlog.jpg

No sane person can pawsibly claim that going from a 1/1,767th share to 1/1,758th share the next year (and that's assuming 100% of bitcoin transactions take place in the developing world) is significant.

That means that bitcoin's share (assuming 100% of its transactions were in developing world which is obviously not the case) was 0.0566% in 2016 and 0.0569% in 2017.

At its current share growth rate it would take 16,477 years for bitcoin to reach the commonly regarded significance level of 5%. That's assuming it can be scaled up thousands of times from its current level while using a distributed network rather than resorting to dedicated central servers.

 

Ignore the rest of the post if you wish but just look at the red text above. Look at it. I'm using recent figures for bitcoin and developing world non-cash transactions and even being generous enough to just include all bitcoin transactions in the calculations for the developing world.

Bitcoin transaction volume growth is not growing at some massive exponential rate. The figures above clearly show its insignificance and how insignificant it "will be" going forward.

 

Also this time is somewhat different when it comes to its market price as well. It's much easier to get a 100% return on "investment" if the price goes from say $1k to $2k, much harder to get that same 100% return on the current price of roughly $15k to $30k. The bigger fools further down the line have to cough up much more cash for that to happen and be reliant on much bigger fools coughing up much more cash to get that same return (an increase in $14k or 1400% more in dollar terms is needed to get the same 100% return in the 2nd case compared to the 1st in that example). Just like in previous speculative bubbles when the relative return gets too low and the barrier to entry gets too high existing people start abandoning their positions and the bubble bursts.

I've already offered congratulations on making money from the scheme (assuming you cashed out), but at the end of the day it is still a speculative bubble. Past and recent figures relating to bitcoin and developing/developed/worldwide non-cash transactions have already been provided time and again. Even a visualization of bitcoin's speculatively-inflated market cap compared to the rest of the world's currency/markets has been provided.

It's getting to the stage where I'm copying and pasting previous posts because you've either been ignoring the figures or you don't know how to read fractions and percentages.

15 hours ago, AshleyAshes said:

It kinda proves the whole 'This is just religion for Rassah' argument. :D

That sounds like the case. I'll admit that I haven't encountered someone before that seems so unable or so unwilling to read fractions/percentages or that can somehow claim that 1/1,758 is significant.

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10 minutes ago, WileyWarWeasel said:

In the meantime you must tell me how Tim Hortons are doing.

Funny story!  In Ontario the minimum wage was raised to $14 on Jan 1st and things KINDA went nuts.  Tim Hortons runs on your pretty common 'Franchise' model where most locations are basically single or clusters of small businesses in a given area while the 'head office' manages the brand and controls some of what the franchises do.  Wages, benefits, stuff like that are all at the discretion of the Francisee not head office.  So various franchises have cut employee benifits, paid breaks, percentage of dental benefits.  The FIRST ones to make the news were literally owned by the HEIRS of Tim Horton (They do NOT hold controlling stake in the company, only own some franchises) and it is NOT going well for them in the media.  Initially head office publically stated 'All of that is at the discretion of the franchisee, we have nothing to do with this, la la la la' but later they issued a critical statement instead.  So there's like this civil war of words between Tim Hortons franchisees and the head office.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/tim-hortons-calls-franchisees-cuts-to-breaks-and-benefits-reckless/article37513737/

This location went so far as to bannish tips at their location in response, despite tips having never come OUT of the employers pocket or went IN.  So that action seems PURELY punitive.

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2018/01/05/scarborough-tim-hortons-workers-banned-from-accepting-tips-after-wage-hike.html

Before anyone says 'Well, it's that or raise prices' what's interesting is that the head office determines prices.  That's how I know what a Double Double and a Boston Cream will cost me regardless of where I go buy one.  So regardless of the operating costs of a location, all product must be sold at a price more or less set nationally.  Which would kinda suck for a HUGE range of reasons, including the wildly different costs of leasing property depending on location.  But that does seem to be standard in a franchise model.

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1 hour ago, AshleyAshes said:

Funny story!  In Ontario the minimum wage was raised to $14 on Jan 1st and things KINDA went nuts.  Tim Hortons runs on your pretty common 'Franchise' model where most locations are basically single or clusters of small businesses in a given area while the 'head office' manages the brand and controls some of what the franchises do.  Wages, benefits, stuff like that are all at the discretion of the Francisee not head office.  So various franchises have cut employee benifits, paid breaks, percentage of dental benefits.  The FIRST ones to make the news were literally owned by the HEIRS of Tim Horton (They do NOT hold controlling stake in the company, only own some franchises) and it is NOT going well for them in the media.  Initially head office publically stated 'All of that is at the discretion of the franchisee, we have nothing to do with this, la la la la' but later they issued a critical statement instead.  So there's like this civil war of words between Tim Hortons franchisees and the head office.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/tim-hortons-calls-franchisees-cuts-to-breaks-and-benefits-reckless/article37513737/

This location went so far as to bannish tips at their location in response, despite tips having never come OUT of the employers pocket or went IN.  So that action seems PURELY punitive.

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2018/01/05/scarborough-tim-hortons-workers-banned-from-accepting-tips-after-wage-hike.html

Before anyone says 'Well, it's that or raise prices' what's interesting is that the head office determines prices.  That's how I know what a Double Double and a Boston Cream will cost me regardless of where I go buy one.  So regardless of the operating costs of a location, all product must be sold at a price more or less set nationally.  Which would kinda suck for a HUGE range of reasons, including the wildly different costs of leasing property depending on location.  But that does seem to be standard in a franchise model.

The move to ban tips is pretty spiteful though the reduction in benefits makes sense if they want to offset the minimum wage increase.

Given the high percentage of workers employed in the restaurant business one wonders how different things would be if everyone just cooked their own food almost all the time and just put something frozen into the oven if they wanted something easy.

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2 minutes ago, WileyWarWeasel said:

Given the high percentage of workers employed in the restaurant business one wonders how different things would be if everyone just cooked their own food almost all the time and just put something frozen into the oven if they wanted something easy.

This is what I do except for lunch at work. :o  I need dat money for other stupid acts of consumerism! :D

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12 hours ago, WileyWarWeasel said:

Is that the lesser of two weevils?

Eh, more something I noticed in a good many of individuals, where they'll brag about the 'status' that comes with having paid a lot for something.  As if to have been able to afford that price tag is an accomplishment.  Personally, I prefer the motivation of paying the last amount for something cause, well, then I get to buy more things. :P  Ditto for the whole thing about spending money efficiently and preventing financial waste.  Less money wasted, the more money for...Well, basically more consumerism.  I'm an EFFICIENT consumer whore. ^_^

I'm also of a minority of people who'd build a spreadsheet just for tracking and making budgetary projections on their power bills. :P

Power Bills.png

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Just now, WileyWarWeasel said:

@AshleyAshesI'm similar, except that I tend to put the savings from buying on the cheap in a savings account so I have a buffer (don't use insurance of any sort) and so that I don't have to work as much.

For your consumerist take on prudence you deserve a Sylveon:

sylveon_and_eevee_by_foxlett-d9yv0w2.png

Well, there's ALSO savings and such. :P 

 

Spreadsheets for the win. ^.^

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10 hours ago, Rassah said:

Just finished this "homework" for the expensive (five figures) business coaching session I'm having later this week. Just in case anyone doubts my credentials in this space http://www.michaeltozoni.com

Rassah said he was done with this because we are 'Spoiled' and then comes right back to talk weirdly brag about the money he's spending on 'Business Coaching' sessions...

 

10 hours ago, Rassah said:

btw, took a peek at Ashley's post since it wasn't to me at this point..

I just love this. :)

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@Rassah @AshleyAshes I find that it's much easier to just look at the overall numbers rather than look for specific instances of one group approving or banning bitcoin.

That being said, there's one case which neither of you have reported: when the authorities are on the fence ;)

"Banning cryptocurrency exchanges needs more consultations: finance minister"

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2018/01/12/0200000000AEN20180112004300320.html

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They're not on the fence in US though. We met with the Senators and House members and their staff a few years ago, explained it to them, explained why they can't really do much with it and why trying to would just push things off them and onto much more difficult to control currencies, and they understood and said they would prefer to stay hands off for a while, like they did with the internet when it came out. And by we I meant I and about 15 others in the group (there are a lot of Senators and House members)

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4 minutes ago, Rassah said:

They're not on the fence in US though. We met with the Senators and House members and their staff a few years ago, explained it to them, explained why they can't really do much with it and why trying to would just push things off them and onto much more difficult to control currencies, and they understood and said they would prefer to stay hands off for a while, like they did with the internet when it came out. And by we I meant I and about 15 others in the group (there are a lot of Senators and House members)

He's doing the thing where he's trying desperately trying to look like a 'big deal' on a non-name furry forum with a declining user base again...

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34 minutes ago, Rassah said:

They're not on the fence in US though. We met with the Senators and House members and their staff a few years ago, explained it to them, explained why they can't really do much with it and why trying to would just push things off them and onto much more difficult to control currencies, and they understood and said they would prefer to stay hands off for a while, like they did with the internet when it came out. And by we I meant I and about 15 others in the group (there are a lot of Senators and House members)

Provided that you're telling the truth and not just trying to embellish, it comes as little surprise that this bunch of politicians would take the easiest route (doing nothing).

It's a bit odd that they compare it to the Internet though as that began with government (in particular the US Department of Defense) and public research institutions researching and expanding on packet-switching networks beginning around the 1960s with the first public commercial use apparently not taking place until 1989. The first conceptualization of the blockchain on the other hand was from an anonymous entity known as "Satoshi Nakamoto".

Perhaps they're referring to just what the senators and house politicians were doing at the time, which apparently was taking a hands-off approach while the departments and institutions involved made the decisions themselves.

50 minutes ago, AshleyAshes said:

He's doing the thing where he's trying desperately trying to look like a 'big deal' on a non-name furry forum with a declining user base again...

Or perhaps there's more to these furrumz than meets the eye ;)

Or maybe he's posting on multiple furry forums, dunno.

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19 minutes ago, WileyWarWeasel said:

Opposites attract, or something.

EDIT: thought you said he's pulling on Ashley, my mistake.

They do have similarities, but can they overcome their differences in the ultimate struggle for reconciliation? Tune in next time!

Only in commissioned porn of the two. Except it will be with bitcoin toys and adding 3D effects to dung beatle documentaries

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6 hours ago, Toshabi said:

He's pulling an AshleyAshes.

I'm not sure what's worse Toshabi; The possibility that you took my satirical post of being 'The Most Successful Millennial In The Universe' for the pedestrian accomplishment of having paid off my student loans as serious... Or that you may seriously view paying off one's student loans as a 'big deal' at all.  ...Though the later would underline the uncomfortably bad financial positions that many millennials find themselves to be in...

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16 hours ago, WileyWarWeasel said:

It's a bit odd that they compare it to the Internet though as that began with government (in particular the US Department of Defense) and public research institutions researching and expanding on packet-switching networks ...

This was the argument put forth (among many), that the Senators in general agreed with, and at the end said was their reason to take a wait and see approach.

"In the early 1990s, when the Internet was in its infancy, Congress took a wait-and-see attitude to let the Internet develop," said Anthony Gallippi, co-founder and chief executive of BitPay, a Bitcoin merchant payment processor. "So where would social media and other free applications of the Internet be today if in the 1990s we required licenses for the Internet and we taxed Internet access as if it was a telecom?"

They also almost all agreed that the current financial regulations already cover bitcoin and are adequate.

Quote

Or perhaps there's more to these furrumz than meets the eye 

Or perhaps I'm just enjoying having an ending one on one with one person here. Note I don't spend much time in this forum and in any other topics.

 

"There are only a few winners here, and, unless they lose it all, their impact going forward will be outsize.

They also remember who laughed at them and when." (https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/01/13/style/bitcoin-millionaires.html)

 

We are the new global elite. And yes, yes we do 😑

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1 hour ago, AshleyAshes said:

I'm not sure what's worse Toshabi; The possibility that you took my satirical post of being 'The Most Successful Millennial In The Universe' for the pedestrian accomplishment of having paid off my student loans as serious... Or that you may seriously view paying off one's student loans as a 'big deal' at all.  ...Though the later would underline the uncomfortably bad financial positions that many millennials find themselves to be in...

Lame.

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12 hours ago, Rassah said:

This was the argument put forth (among many), that the Senators in general agreed with, and at the end said was their reason to take a wait and see approach.

"In the early 1990s, when the Internet was in its infancy, Congress took a wait-and-see attitude to let the Internet develop," said Anthony Gallippi, co-founder and chief executive of BitPay, a Bitcoin merchant payment processor. "So where would social media and other free applications of the Internet be today if in the 1990s we required licenses for the Internet and we taxed Internet access as if it was a telecom?"

They also almost all agreed that the current financial regulations already cover bitcoin and are adequate.

Actually I was talking about the period before the commercial version of the Internet between 1960 - 1989 but a wait-and-see approach makes sense in either case.

Frankly I don't think they'll do anything unless a lobbyist or other outside party (bank/s maybe) gets them to.

12 hours ago, Rassah said:

Or perhaps I'm just enjoying having an ending one on one with one person here. Note I don't spend much time in this forum and in any other topics.

Or perhaps you're posting on multiple furry forums to establish furr-spectrum dominance ;V

As for that one person is that me or someone else? ^^

12 hours ago, Rassah said:

"There are only a few winners here, and, unless they lose it all, their impact going forward will be outsize.

They also remember who laughed at them and when." (https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/01/13/style/bitcoin-millionaires.html)

 

We are the new global elite. And yes, yes we do 😑

It takes more than having a few million to be the elite that decides macro policies ;)

Admittedly a few mil is a start.

2 hours ago, Toshabi said:

Lame

Ashley

Memes

Ect.

That explains why I keep getting Ashley talking about Canada, bitcoin and consumerism when I try to encode MP3s. Damn these acronyms.

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1 minute ago, WileyWarWeasel said:

That explains why I keep getting Ashley talking about Canada, bitcoin and consumerism when I try to encode MP3s. Damn these acronyms.

My first encounter with LAME was as an external MP3/MP2 encoder that I was using with Tsunami MPEG encoder waaaaaay back then when I'd convert pirated anime to Video CD and Super Video CD for playback on my DVD player.  (DVDRW drives would not affordable for a few more years).  The audio encoder in TMPGEnc did a bad job converting from 48khz to 44.1khz to meet the (S)VCD standards so it'd cause a tinny effect until I started using LAME.

Mmm, nostalgia for old anime piracy. :3 Of course, now it's 2018 and I have a 58TB media server and instead of burning anime to disc, I buy anime on disc and rip the discs to store on a hard drive. O.o 

So, let's talk about what really matters in this Canada KFC Bitcoin issue:  ...MOST KFCS IN CANADA DON"T DO MASHED POTATOES SO WHY THE HELL AREN'T YOU ORDERING FROM POPEYE'S INSTEAD!?

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7 minutes ago, AshleyAshes said:

My first encounter with LAME was as an external MP3/MP2 encoder that I was using with Tsunami MPEG encoder waaaaaay back then when I'd convert pirated anime to Video CD and Super Video CD for playback on my DVD player.  (DVDRW drives would not affordable for a few more years).  The audio encoder in TMPGEnc did a bad job converting from 48khz to 44.1khz to meet the (S)VCD standards so it'd cause a tinny effect until I started using LAME.

Mmm, nostalgia for old anime piracy. :3 Of course, now it's 2018 and I have a 58TB media server and instead of burning anime to disc, I buy anime on disc and rip the discs to store on a hard drive. O.o 

Thank god it's ridiculously easy nowadays to just connect the PC to the TV rather than have separate players. Also don't have to bother with that "smart" TV nonsense to play stuff.

8 minutes ago, AshleyAshes said:

So, let's talk about what really matters in this Canada KFC Bitcoin issue:  ...MOST KFCS IN CANADA DON"T DO MASHED POTATOES SO WHY THE HELL AREN'T YOU ORDERING FROM POPEYE'S INSTEAD!?

Because Popeye eats spinach silly ;V

popeye-fondos-de-escritorio-wallpaper.jp

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10 hours ago, WileyWarWeasel said:

Thank god it's ridiculously easy nowadays to just connect the PC to the TV rather than have separate players. Also don't have to bother with that "smart" TV nonsense to play stuff.

I know, right?  I was into the whole (S)VCD basically so I could watch fan subs and stuff on my TV.  This was also possible then with a video card capable of TV output but one needed a PC in physical range of a TV, as an older teen that was not within my means.

Of course now it's 2018, I have seven computers in a one bedroom apartment and an HDMI cable can link any TV to any PC.  With my HTPC setup I have 305 (and growing) different anime series available from the server.  Even my physical blurays are easily ripped and stored and accessible without any compromise in how they look.

Back in the (S)VCD days I'd literally spend 3 HOURS transcoding just ONE episode of an anime on my Pentium III. O.o

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9 hours ago, AshleyAshes said:

I know, right?  I was into the whole (S)VCD basically so I could watch fan subs and stuff on my TV.  This was also possible then with a video card capable of TV output but one needed a PC in physical range of a TV, as an older teen that was not within my means.

Of course now it's 2018, I have seven computers in a one bedroom apartment and an HDMI cable can link any TV to any PC.  With my HTPC setup I have 305 (and growing) different anime series available from the server.  Even my physical blurays are easily ripped and stored and accessible without any compromise in how they look.

Back in the (S)VCD days I'd literally spend 3 HOURS transcoding just ONE episode of an anime on my Pentium III. O.o

Around that time I was trying to render simple scenes in 3DS Max, now that was a test of patience.

Also why seven computers?

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1 hour ago, WileyWarWeasel said:

Also why seven computers?

1) Desktop/Workstation
2) Media Server
3) Livingroom HTPC/Steam Machine (Made from old workstation)
4) Bedroom HTPC /Steam Machine (It's hot pink to match the bedroom decor!)
5) Laptop
6) Small Form Factor ITX PC built out of my old laptop's CPU/RAM/HDDs and other spare parts plus a Silverstone SFF case basically to prove that I could recycle my old laptop into a desktop.  ....This machine admittidly has no purpose.
7) Half aseembled rebuild eMachine eMonster 500a from 1999.  Basically I've been eBaying 20 year old eMachine parts to make a 'sleeper' build that will have modern components inside.  Most of this is a pile of eBayed parts though and a case with an 6 year old motherboard inside it for testing.  But once done it'll be cool.  This eMachine was the PC I used for the VCD stuff I'm talking bout, also for my AMV editing, and a lot of my exploration of the internet from 2000-2004.  So it's nostalgic to me to 'bring it back to life' even if I have no original parts and have to hunt them down on eBay.
 

 

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52 minutes ago, AshleyAshes said:

1) Desktop/Workstation
2) Media Server
3) Livingroom HTPC/Steam Machine (Made from old workstation)
4) Bedroom HTPC /Steam Machine (It's hot pink to match the bedroom decor!)
5) Laptop
6) Small Form Factor ITX PC built out of my old laptop's CPU/RAM/HDDs and other spare parts plus a Silverstone SFF case basically to prove that I could recycle my old laptop into a desktop.  ....This machine admittidly has no purpose.
7) Half aseembled rebuild eMachine eMonster 500a from 1999.  Basically I've been eBaying 20 year old eMachine parts to make a 'sleeper' build that will have modern components inside.  Most of this is a pile of eBayed parts though and a case with an 6 year old motherboard inside it for testing.  But once done it'll be cool.  This eMachine was the PC I used for the VCD stuff I'm talking bout, also for my AMV editing, and a lot of my exploration of the internet from 2000-2004.  So it's nostalgic to me to 'bring it back to life' even if I have no original parts and have to hunt them down on eBay.
 

 

Apart from the laptop those could be combined into one PC. Given your experience you could probably make some money on the side doing PC repairs and custom builds for others.

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4 minutes ago, WileyWarWeasel said:

Apart from the laptop those could be combined into one PC. Given your experience you could probably make some money on the side doing PC repairs and custom builds for others.

Nah it all runs better as individual PCs.  (And two are 'projects').  Also I have no interest in a 'side gig' cause my time off really needs to be focused on binge watching TV and anime while trying to ignore constant existential dread. ^_^

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